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Abstract Predicting potential distributions of species in new areas is challenging. Physiological data can improve interpretation of predicted distributions and can be used in directed distribution models. Nonnative species provide useful case studies. Panther chameleons (Furcifer pardalis) are native to Madagascar and have established populations in Florida, USA, but standard correlative distribution modeling predicts no suitable habitat forF. pardalisthere. We evaluated commonly collected thermal traits– thermal performance, tolerance, and preference—ofF. pardalisand the acclimatization potential of these traits during exposure to naturally-occurring environmental conditions in North Central Florida. Though we observed temperature-dependent thermal performance, chameleons maintained similar thermal limits, performance, and preferences across seasons, despite long-term exposure to cool temperatures. Using the physiological data collected, we developed distribution models that varied in restriction: time-dependent exposure near and below critical thermal minima, predicted activity windows, and predicted performance thresholds. Our application of commonly collected physiological data improved interpretations on potential distributions ofF. pardalis, compared with correlative distribution modeling approaches that predicted no suitable area in Florida. These straightforward approaches can be applied to other species with existing physiological data or after brief experiments on a limited number of individuals, as demonstrated here. 

Abstract Effects of global climate change on population persistence are often mediated by life‐history traits of individuals, especially the timing of somatic growth, reproductive development, and reproduction itself. These traits can vary among age groups and between the sexes, a result of differential life‐history tactics and levels of lifetime reproductive investment. Unfortunately, the trait data necessary for revealing sex‐specific breeding behaviors and use of breeding cues over reasonably large geographic areas remain sparse for most taxa. In this study, we assembled and analyzed a new reproductive trait base for the North American deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) from digitized natural history specimens and field censuses. We used the data to reconstruct sex‐specific breeding phenologies and their drivers within and among North American ecoregions. Male and female phenologies varied across the geographic range of this species, with discordance in timing and intensity being highest in regions of lower seasonality (and longer breeding seasons). Reliance on environmental variables as breeding cues also appeared to vary in a sex‐specific manner, being most similar for photoperiod and least similar for temperature (positive male response and negative female response); in addition, model validation indicated that phenological models generalized better for males than for females. Finally, our individual‐level trait data also show that male reproductive investment (quantified as relative testis size) varies across the vastly different abiotic and social (i.e., female breeding) contexts studied here. By harmonizing across a broad set of digital data resources, we demonstrate the potential to uncover drivers of phenological variation within species and inform global change predictions at multiple scales of biological organization. 

Abstract A wave of green leaves and multi‐colored flowers advances from low to high latitudes each spring. However, little is known about how flowering offset (i.e., ending of flowering) and duration of populations of the same species vary along environmental gradients. Understanding these patterns is critical for predicting the effects of future climate and land‐use change on plants, pollinators, and herbivores. Here, we investigated potential climatic and landscape drivers of flowering onset, offset, and duration of 52 plant species with varying key traits. We generated phenology estimates using >270,000 community‐science photographs and a novel presence‐only phenometric estimation method. We found longer flowering durations in warmer areas, which is more obvious for summer‐blooming species compared to spring‐bloomers driven by their strongly differing offset dynamics. We also found that higher human population density and higher annual precipitation are associated with delayed flowering offset and extended flowering duration. Finally, offset of woody perennials was more sensitive than herbaceous species to both climate and urbanization drivers. Empirical forecast models suggested that flowering durations will be longer in 2030 and 2050 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, especially for summer‐blooming species. Our study provides critical insight into drivers of key flowering phenophases and confirms that Hopkins’ Bioclimatic Law also applies to flowering durations for summer‐blooming species and herbaceous spring‐blooming species. 

Abstract Insect phenological lability is key for determining which species will adapt under environmental change. However, little is known about when adult insect activity terminates and overall activity duration. We used community‐science and museum specimen data to investigate the effects of climate and urbanisation on timing of adult insect activity for 101 species varying in life history traits. We found detritivores and species with aquatic larval stages extend activity periods most rapidly in response to increasing regional temperature. Conversely, species with subterranean larval stages have relatively constant durations regardless of regional temperature. Species extended their period of adult activity similarly in warmer conditions regardless of voltinism classification. Longer adult durations may represent a general response to warming, but voltinism data in subtropical environments are likely underreported. This effort provides a framework to address the drivers of adult insect phenology at continental scales and a basis for predicting species response to environmental change.